Emkay Global Financial Services, a leading stock brokerage firm, has released a comprehensive report on Adani Green Energy Ltd. (AGEL), assigning a “Buy” rating with a projected 50% upside from current levels. The report underscores AGEL’s position as a low-cost leader in the renewable energy sector, with a well-secured growth path and strong operational performance.
AGEL is one of the world’s largest renewable energy companies with projected generation capacity to reach over 55GW GW by 2030, including 6.5GW from Pump Storage. It is setting up the world’s largest renewable energy park in Khavda region of Gujarat in India with a capacity of 30GW capacity.
AGEL has also proposed to invest over a billion dollars in Sri Lanka in setting up a ~500MW wind project in Mannar and Pooneryn, making it SL’s largest FDI in the power sector.
Emkay Global’s analysis indicates that AGEL is well-positioned for long-term growth, driven by its strategic investments, technological advancements, and strong market positioning.
Secured Growth Path and Resource-Rich Sites:
Emkay Global says AGEL has demonstrated an impressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41% in operational renewable energy (RE) capacity over the past five years. It has secured prime sites for solar-wind development exceeding 50GW in Gujarat and Rajasthan in India, with an additional 5GW+ for pumped storage projects (PSP). Gujarat-Rajasthan supersites, particularly Khavda, offer some of the highest resource yields globally.
Technological Advancements and Competitive Edge:
With the backing of improving technology, AGEL’s CUF (Capacity Utilisation Factor) is expected to see a steady increase. Emkay Global anticipates that AGEL’s market share in India’s RE sector will grow to 15% by FY30, up from 8% in FY24, with merchant capacity (capacity not tied up with PPAs and sold in open market) rising to 20% from the current 5-6%.
Diversified Capital Pool and Improved Leverage Ratios:
AGEL is supported by a diversified pool of capital, including US$3.4bn in revolving construction facilities from banks and access to long-term global bond markets. Following an ~$850 million residual promoter infusion, future growth is expected to be funded through internal accruals. AGEL’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, which stood at 7.4x in FY24 is expected to moderate to 3.6x by FY30. It’s cost of debt is also expected to decline, Emkay Global says.
Attractive Valuation:
Emkay Global values AGEL at 15x FY30E EV/EBITDA, discounted at 12% (Cost of Equity) to September 2025. This valuation is considered reasonably conservative, supported by a projected 30-60% CAGR in revenue and earnings.
